The future starts now — #75

Hi, and happy new year.

We are already 22 days in, but since that is only about 6% of the total, we could still consider it new.

I spent much time during my time off thinking about when I feel like the best and happiest version of myself. One surprisingly clear insight is that I love to write. I feel like words are my thing. Also, THANK YOU for all the great feedback last year; it makes it even more fun to put in the time.

Another thing I love is the work I do. I get to think about real-world challenges daily, provide value to the businesses I support, and bring unique perspectives to the table. I’m very grateful for the opportunity to do this. I still have time for additional assignments this year, so I'd love to chat if you need a strategic thinker.

This newsletter perfectly overlaps the two things I love, and I’ve decided to expand it further. Also, I should probably start to monetise my writing in some ways if I want to do more of it ... So, I’m happy to announce some 2023 developments:

1. The newsletter has moved to Substack. Email subscribers won’t notice much difference; it will still arrive in your inbox on Sunday mornings. But from now on, you can read it in the Substack app, too.

2. You can become a paying subscriber. I love writing this newsletter, but it also takes time. So, if you want to show your support, you can now subscribe monthly or yearly or become a “founding member”.

Sunday newsletters will continue to be free (at least for now), but paid subscribers will get additional content and benefits. I know that many of my readers use this as a way to keep up to date for work, so if you have ideas on what you would find valuable to make that even easier for you — topic-specific briefings, foresight tools, etc. — I’d love to know (you can reply to this email).

However, I will love all readers equally. So don’t worry if you cannot pay. One completely free thing you can do to support me is to recommend this newsletter to friends—or on social media.

This was a long intro to the 2023 edition. Let’s skip to the good part.

Anna

United States plan to invest more in Africa to limit China’s and Russia’s impact

GEOPOLITICS / AFRICA

The Biden administration is trying to counter China’s established influence and infrastructure in Africa by offering countries an alternative path to economic and political security. United States Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen kicked off her 10-day trip to Africa, promising that America is committed to the continent through good times and bad.

China has deployed billions of dollars in Africa in its Belt and Road initiative. Still, some African leaders have referred to these projects as exploitation and complained about the debt burdens of doing business with Beijing. Now, the Biden administration wants to offer an alternative.

But the nice gesture is not without ulterior motives. The African continent has some of the world’s most extensive reserves of critical minerals hidden under the surface, crucial to the United States plans to transition the world to greener energy. At the same time, Africa’s exploding population will demand a more significant share of the world’s jobs and energy resources.

Yellen’s trip will be a mixture of soft diplomacy and firm offers on what the United States government and businesses can do to improve the quality of life for Africans. Moreover, she acknowledges that Africans have suffered on America’s path to prosperity — with the forced enslaving of people as one example.

The United States is not the only superpower making high-profile trips to Africa. High-profile visits from China and Russia shadow Yellen’s trip – the two countries whose influence the United States is trying to check. China’s new foreign minister, Qin Gang, ended a five-stop trip on Monday. Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, will arrive in Pretoria, South Africa, a few days ahead of Yellen.

Fake press release appointed former garment worker the new co-CEO of Adidas

FAKE NEWS / ADIDAS

Wanting to draw attention to alleged human rights violations in Adidas’ supply chain and pressure the sportswear company to address them, stunt activists The Yes Men and labour rights group Clean Clothes Campaign sent a press release from a fake Adidas domain on Monday.

In the fake release, ‘Adidas’ announced they were radically restructuring its leadership, appointing a former Cambodian garment worker and union leader to serve as its co-CEO and oversee efforts to ensure ethical manufacturing practices. Several fashion news outlets and blogs reported the story before the announcement was clarified to be fake.

The action included a spoof launch event in central Berlin, where bruised and bloodied models stumbled across the catwalk in “reality-wear” garments. All in front of an audience that seemed to accept the collection as genuine. In a glass cage, you could see a pair of Adidas slippers with spikes pushing through the soles, presented as an example of the company’s new ethos.

This action is an escalating trend of more disruptive and confrontational activism using more controversial methods. Growing frustration and anxiety over inaction on topics like climate and social justice and new digital tools create opportunities for a more radical type of activism — taking both brands and consumers by surprise.

Unhappy workers are quitting safe jobs to work for themselves — amid a spike in bankruptcies

BUSINESS

From the Great Resignation to the Great Reflection. With economists across the globe predicting more challenging times and the number of bankruptcies in the EU increasing dramatically during the fall, one could think that we would optimise for safe employment. But we seem to be a brave species (or just bored) because, in the United States and Europe, the trend is the opposite — more people than ever are venturing out on their own.

A shift in this rise of new businesses — at least in the United States — is that a broader segment of society is participating than ever before. Women, Black Americans, and those without college degrees are starting small online businesses to a much larger share than before the pandemic. According to data from GoDaddy, Women founded 57 per cent of small online businesses since March 2020 compared with 48 per cent before; Black Americans were behind 26 per cent, up from 15 per cent; and Americans without college degrees were behind 44 per cent compared with 36 per cent pre-pandemic.

The reasons behind venturing out on your own vary greatly, ranging from financial to philosophical. According to survey data from Slack's Future Forum in October, 40% of workers globally said they feel burned out — an 8% rise from May. The most significant increase was seen in the US, where 43% of desk workers report feeling burned out. Younger workers are more likely to experience burnout, with 49% of workers between 18 and 29 feeling burned out, compared with just 38% of workers over 30.

One crucial aspect of well-being at work seems to be the opportunity to choose when and where to work. Workers with full schedule flexibility report 29% higher productivity and 53% more remarkable ability to focus than workers without the ability to shift their schedule. Still, we see large corporations demanding their employees to return to the office …

Double-check the headlines

Just making sure you didn't miss any major world events this week.

• New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern resigned and will leave her role within the upcoming weeks. She has been leading the country since 2017 and no longer has "enough in the tank" to lead.

• Microsoft communicated it will lay off 10,000 workers to trim costs. The cuts amount to less than 5 per cent of the company’s workforce and are its largest in roughly eight years.

• Adding to the tech layoff numbers, Google’s parent company, Alphabet, said they will cut about 12,000 jobs, estimated to be about 6% of the tech giant’s workforce.

• 14 people died in a Ukraine helicopter crash. Among the victims were Ukrainian Interior Minister Denys Monastyrskyi, who oversaw police and security forces.

• A former Swedish intelligence officer was sentenced to life imprisonment, and his younger brother to 10 years, for spying for Russia’s military intelligence service for over a decade.

• Global defence leaders gathered at Ramstein Air Base in Germany to resolve how to support Ukraine with battle tanks and other military aid.

• Over 1 million French people protested President Emmanuel Macron’s controversial plan to raise the country’s minimum retirement age from 62 to 64.

• The United States will provide Ukraine with a $2.5 billion security package, including armoured Stryker combat vehicles.

One long

TIME

As elites arrive in Davos, conspiracy theories thrive online

How an annual event at a Swiss ski resort became a target for bizarre claims about elites manipulating global events for their personal benefit.

Five short

1. Watch

One of my favourite children’s movies – Roald Dahl’s Matilda from 1996 - has been remade as a musical movie. Both versions have their charm, but most of all, it’s a good compare and contrast — highlighting what has changed in the past three decades when making entertainment for children. You find them both on Netflix.

And, for the large share of 🇸🇪 on the list … Over the holidays, I watched the SVT documentary about Swedish author and Noble Prize laureate Selma Lagerlöf, co-directed by my friend Ulrika Nulty. Two beautiful episodes about breaking social norms and what it means to be human.

2. Listen

Apple Music has put together a playlist with the Shazam predictions for 2023. Looking at the most ‘Shazamed’ songs at the end of the year, they could identify artists and songs that might have their break. A playlist with massive variation, which is part of the charm; taste in music is not a science.

3. Remember

Starting a new year often comes with ideas about becoming a better version of yourself. Just remember, you might be good enough already.

4. Change

The second Friday of the new year is Quitters Day, according to the training app Strava. Based on their data, this is the day most users give up on our fitness-related New Year’s resolutions. My former psychology professor used to say that the best New Year resolves not to make one.

However, my promise in the New Year is to fail more. Inspired by my friend Lauren, I have created a monthly fail goal for myself. Why? Well, it is easy to optimise for staying safe — and that is not how I believe my life will be exciting or my business will be successful.

This week, I collected my first big fail of 2023, which wasn’t fun, but I survived.

5. Try

Today, an estimated 2 billion people across the globe celebrate the Lunar New Year. We are now moving into the Year of the Rabbit — a symbol of longevity, peace, and prosperity in Chinese culture. According to Chinese mythology, 2023 is predicted to be a year of hope. Sounds good, right?

Even if you are not familiar with the cultural traditions connected to the Lunar New Year, like decorating your house with kumquat trees or wearing your lucky colour, I’d recommend you try some lucky food. Because who doesn’t like the sound of dumplings, noodles, and pineapple treats …